Rally to Save the American Dream Minnesota

Here are some photos if you weren't there, or if you just want to relive the moment!

Dear Dylan Ratigan: Shanghai is not "China"

MSNBC has to be the worst traditional media when it comes to reporting on education. Yesterday on the Dylan Ratigan Show the host repeatedly said that  "China" was the number one country in education in the world, according to the PISA tests. Uh, no, only Shanghai was tested for PISA. And Shanghai is hardly representative of China as a whole. Shanghai has a population of 19 million. China has a population 1.3 billion. That makes Shanghai about 1.5 percent of the total Chinese population.

According to Wikipedia, "Shanghai has one of the most developed education systems in China. It is the first city where the 9-year compulsory education is implemented in the country...Shanghai is also a major centre of higher education teaching and research with over 30 universities and colleges." It is completely absurd to compare the educational attainment of selected students in Shanghai to the entire United States, and even crazier to believe Shanghai is typical of the entire country of China.

Your liberal media at work.

Apparently, you can run and you CAN hide!

Bradley Dean Smith, alias Bradlee Dean, scheduled to be on with John and Roger on their internet radio show tomorrow, has beat a strategic retreat.

The event is memorialized in a graphic by Avidor.

TFA teachers are worse than regularly certified teachers

Given time, they might catch up; but 80% leave by end of third year

Let's get something straight about Teach for America, or other "alternatively certified" teachers:

"...studies indicate that the students of novice TFA teachers perform significantly less well in reading and mathematics than those of credentialed beginning teachers."

That's from a meta-study "Teach for America: A Review of the Evidence" by two university researchers for the Great Lakes Center for Education Research and Practice. The study concludes "TFA is likely not a panacea that will reduce disparities in educational outcomes." That's an understatement. The report points out that 50 percent of TFA teachers leave the profession after two years, and 80 percent have left by the end of their third year. Other research shows that for all teachers the first two or three years of their careers are their least productive and most trying. School districts also bear significant educational and financial penalties for the short careers of TFA grads:

"Recruiting and training replacements for teachers who leave involves financial costs, and the higher  achievement gains associated with experienced teachers and lower turnover may be lost as well."

It's well past time to put to rest the canard that "many of the schools nationwide doing the best job closing the racial and economic achievement gap are staffed by instructors who were trained in effective, intensive strategies by groups like Teach for America and The New Teacher Project," as reported at Minnpost. More TFA means a worse education for our most needy children, and more expense for our school districts.

Pima County has had it

The folks in Pima County, Arizona have had it with their bat-shit crazy northern neighbors and are now threatening to create their own state:

Could Baja Arizona be 51st state in US?
Idea of Pima secession from state isn't new, but this time it's for real, new panel insists

Pima County the 51st state?

A political committee made up of attorneys, including the former chairman of the Pima County Democratic Party, has been formed to try to get Southern Arizona to secede from the rest of the state...Paul Eckerstrom, co-chair of Save Our State, said it's not a ploy and not merely a political statement. He said the state Legislature has gone too far to the right.

... In particular, a round of legislative measures challenging federal supremacy "really does border on them saying they don't want to be part of the Union any longer," he said.

Of course this doesn't seem likely to succeed in creating a new state, but it might help people from places like Tucson express the idea that, really, they're not like those morons in Phoenix.

Drinking Liberally tonight!

And it will be a really good one, too. David Schultz, a professor of political science at Hamline University and a professor of law at the University of Minnesota Law School, will be our guest. You will recognize David as a frequent guest on political panels on TPT’s Friday night Almanac show.

Professor Schultz had an op-ed piece at MinnPost yesterday about Wisconsin governor Scott Walker’s real political motives in trying to destroy public employee unions – or some of them anyway. When you’ve got a moment, you should also check out the professor’s blog. I’ll bet you save the link.

We expect that David will start his remarks around seven; Drinking Liberally – Minneapolis meet from six to nine every Thursday evening at the 331 Club in Northeast Minneapolis.

Voting with their feet redux

During the 2010 campaign, I noted a recurring theme in Tom Emmer's campaign rhetoric: taxes = people leave. Or, as Rep. John Lesch pithily stated during this morning's House Taxes Committee hearing: "our beloved rich people would flee like rats from a sinking ship."

This argument is an article of faith among Republicans. They produced a witness this morning who began his testimony stating that he was deeply offended by those who would suggest that snowbirds were selfish people who strategically moved out of state to avoid taxes. Five minutes later he was led by Rep. Kiffmeyer to state emphatically that if taxes were raised he would move to his other house in Florida to avoid paying higher taxes.

This dizzying logic is par for the course on the debate about migration and taxes. Star Tribune editor Doug Tice joins in with another staple - the unattributed anecdote. Mr. Tice's ultra-talented, uber-mobile, and wealthy friend can choose to live anywhere he wants; why would he want to live in Minnesota if taxes were raised?

Answer: quality of life, good schools, family ties, and a million other things that have tied communities of people together since time immemorial.

What follows is a repost from July on this debate, with some really good links on migration and taxes.

Annette Meeks led the Freedom Foundation of Minnesota in February 2010 when they released a report repeating the claim that people were fleeing the state. While the report makes for edifying reading, it's not for the reasons they seem to think so. Their conclusion is that Minnesota is losing residents and tax revenue to lower-tax states (like Arizona and Florida) but they overstate the problem and then miss the reasons why that problem exists.

1) Minnesota is not a "departure zone"

Minnesota does lag behind a lot of states as a "magnet" state (percentage of state population that moved from elsewhere), but it is highly "sticky" (percentage of people who were born in a state and still live there.) In Minnesota, 2/3rds of the population that is born here continues to live here, and only 30% of the current population comes from other states.

Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack nationally for state-to-state migration numbers. We gain domestic in-migrants at a slightly lower rate than we lose out-migrants (whether you measure number of taxpayers or number of exemptions) This is according to the single academic citation in the Freedom Foundation report, "The County-to-County Migration of Taxpayers and their Incomes 1995-2006" (page 3, Table 1a and page 4, Table 1b.)

This is consistent with national and regional trends - the Midwest and Northeast are losing population to the South and West. Shockingly, the two states where Minnesota out-migrants are going are balmy Florida and Arizona, accounting for 78.2% of the lost income from 1995-2007. However, Minnesota fares very well regionally, with nearly every state in the region sending in-migrants to Minnesota. Don't believe me? Here's the Freedom Foundation's own numbers:

Top 10 States Sending In-Migrants to Minnesota (Net # of Taxpayers 1995-2007, Table 3A)
1. Iowa 9,634
2. North Dakota 7,620
3. Illinois 6,311
4. Wisconsin 5,219
5. Michigan 4,490
6. Nebraska 1,833
7. Ohio 1,646
8. Indiana 1,576
9. South Dakota 1,322
10. New Jersey 1,140

2) Tax increases are not correlated with out-migration in Minnesota

This notion of people voting with their feet, pulling a Galt, and taking their businesses and jobs with them has gained a cultural currency simply through repetition. It's true that the relatively small net loss of state-to-state migrants is a recent problem. It's also worth quoting the Freedom Foundation's report at length on this question:

Out-migration represents a relatively recent development for Minnesota. Between 1991 and 2001, Minnesota gained 104,295 residents from other states, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau. In 2002, however, the trend abruptly reversed. Between 2002 and 2009, Minnesota lost 54,113 residents to other states. Clearly Minnesota now has a severe out-migration problem (p. 1).

Assigning causality to migration trends is incredibly difficult. Every relocation decision is made for highly individual reasons, including some that I will discuss in a moment. But as a question of correlation, it's important to note that Minnesota's "relatively recent problem" corresponds exactly to the term of Governor Pawlenty. And that over that same period 2002-2009, the tax burden on Minnesotans has remained flat, and is significantly lower than it was in the 1990's when Minnesota experienced population growth (See 2009 Minnesota Tax Incidence Study, Figure E-1, p. 3)

3) Minnesota's success at attracting migrants depends on education and environment

The Freedom Foundation "examines" five factors they think influence migration decisions, taxes, percent of union membership, population density, cost of housing, and weather. But this selection of factors excludes a number of relocation factors that favor Minnesota and includes factors that seem completely arbitrary (union membership.) Consider this 2006 study (cited by the "County-to-County Migration.." study used by the Freedom Foundation) from the Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy.

In it, the authors analyze a number of factors that might influence state-to-state population migration and begins with the following caution: "omission of non-economic factors from an empirical migration analysis . . . generally compromises the integrity of that analysis." The authors then use data from 2000-2004 to examine a number of factors that I think reveal a recipe that explains how Minnesota has recently lost in-migrants and how we might regain them.

Factors that should increase Minnesota's net in-migration
Higher Per-Capita Spending on Public Education
Higher Median Family Income
Higher Employment Growth Rate
Lower Pollution, an environment of "clean air and water"

Factors that should decrease Minnesota's net in-migration
Higher State Income Tax
Higher Cost of Living
Climate

Minnesota has relatively high income tax rates, but one big factor in Minnesota's attractiveness to in-migrants has always been its investment in education. While relative tax burdens (measured by tax incidence) have been declining, we've also seen education funding fail to keep pace with inflation. Minnesota is at risk of losing the positive amenities that have attracted in-migrants and that have maintained Minnesota's unemployment rate well below the national average.

The reality of Minnesota's migration problem is multifaceted and complicated. The simplistic story of "high taxes = people are fleeing" may play well to the base, but it's bad for Minnesota. A thoughtful response to migration requires investment in the assets that attract migrants to our state. These investments are the opposite of Republican prescriptions for job growth in this state, which holds that government can only strangle job growth and never encourage it.

Follow me on Twitter @aaronklemz

Listen up, everybody

To John Shannon and Roger Shaver interview Bradlee Dean on their internet radio show this Saturday at noon. You can get the details and a link to follow by going to The Shannon Files. John and Gordon are DLers, too.

Well hello, Deputy

I thought I smelled bullshit!

The Republican leadership in the Minnesota Legislature held a “press availability” after Governor Dayton’s veto of the first piecemeal budget bill passed by the Republican-controlled body. In responding to a question about whether local government aid (LGA) cuts proposed in the vetoed bill would raise property taxes, Sen. Amy Koch, the Senate Majority Leader, says, heaven forfend; the cities have anticipated this. How – exactly – that translates into no property tax increases to cover, say police and firefighter salaries, Sen. Koch doesn’t say.

But the best part is when Deputy Majority Leader Geoff Michel, a state senator from Edina and prestigious West Bloomington, chimes in to support the Majority Leader, faithful retainer that he is, and says, yes, I just met with Bloomington city leaders this morning, and they confirm they are ready to shoulder their part of the LGA cut burden, and they expect that the cuts will be in the final budget.

Then, somebody asked Michel, “How much LGA does Bloomington get?”

Michel replies with his best hand caught in the cookie jar smile – an expression well known to residents of his district – and says, “Not much.”

I am pretty sure that Geoff Michel knows that Bloomington doesn’t get any local government aid. It hasn’t since 2003. It doesn’t need it; it has the Mall of America.

After fibbing about Bloomington’s preparations for LGA cuts, Michel can’t even be honest when the inevitable follow up-question is asked.

You can see the video here:

Geoff Michel talks about LGA cuts to Bloomington

Sen. Michel will tell you that the state has enough money, and that it can do everything it needs to do with the anticipated 32 billion dollars in revenue in the next biennium.

I think you need to take that will a large dose of salt – not merely a grain – when you realize what a serial dissembler the author of the statement is.

An “indecorous bagman”

A pretty good turn of a phrase from Chris Floyd:

These stirring scenes of mass dissent are not set in Egypt, Libya or Bahrain, but deep in the heart of the Homeland itself: Wisconsin. Governor Scott Walker, one of more indecorous bagmen of the corporate elite, is using a "budget crisis" that he himself created with tax favors for the wealthy in a bid to destroy the collective bargaining rights of working people. The immediate target is the public sector unions, but the ultimate goal is the destruction of the very principle of collective bargaining in every sector, as Craig Unger makes clear at Forbes.com.

(Wis.) Representative Gordon Hintz on the "Budget repair bill"

This video went up Saturday; it has 170,000 views so far.

A thump of the tail to Blois Olson’s Morning Take, who, in turn, got it from Jake Spano.

Update: The video was removed; apparently it was a clip taken from a Wisconsin Public Televsion broadcast. Mild irony, that.

Anyway, it was about how the Democratic legislators in Wisconsin were kept in the dark about about hearings, votes, etc. on the governor’s bill. Hinz is a Hamline graduate and a former staffer for Paul Wellstone, and a little Wellstone rubbed off on Hintz. It was a passionate complaint about conducting government in the dark.

Anybody know where another copy might be found?

Further update: Dave posted a link in the comments where you can see the video.

Frauds of Michelle Rhee still uncorrected in media

I don't need to remind everyone about Michelle Rhee, the "hero" of the fraudulent film Waiting for Superman.  Rhee is looking worse and worse as reality catches up to her. First, her fraudulent version of her teaching career has been dismantled by recently revealed research from her school. Second, a court recently ruled that she  exceeded her authority as Chancellor of the DC public schools, and has ordered that the district, at great financial sacrifice, re-hire 75 teachers inappropriately fired. Also - does anyone even bother to report that Rhee told a reporter about getting so fed up with her students that she taped their mouths shut?

It seems DC voters were way ahead of the deform movement when they removed Rhee's protector, Adrian Fenty, last September (in a primary). When will credulous traditional media writers catch up?

UPDATE: The Daily Howler is out with another update on Rhees today, complaining about how "No one would fact-check her nonsense." Sounds like our local "liberal" education writers.

When even the Chamber of Commerce questions you...

From the Greater Madison Chamber of Commerce:

The GMCC supports the work to address the state budget deficit and the efforts toward improving the state's economy. That support ends at the adversarial way elected officials are approaching it. Public policy issues of this magnitude should not be rushed through the legislative process. Given this state's long history of collective bargaining, policy changes of this magnitude should be thoroughly debated for an adequate period of time, in good faith by both sides, with all potential consequences considered. Currently, that is not happening.

The bill that is being debated in Madison make sweeping changes to many parts of what makes Wisconsin great. It upends the public unions. It peels off the UW-Madison from the rest of the UW system, presumably to decimate it. The Milwaukee public schools are in line to be destroyed. It was proposed on February 11, and a vote to send it out of committee was set for six days later.

Yes, the Republicans won the election in November. But if their plan to change the state so fundamentally is sanctioned by the voters - something they claim - then they have nothing to fear from a full airing and examination of what they plan to do.

Conflating the importance of teacher quality with the ability to measure it at the individual level

Education deform roundup for February 20

1) Conflating the importance of teacher quality with the ability to measure it at the individual level. Not long ago the LA Times reported on a RAND corporation study on variation of teacher effectiveness. The study was based on an analysis of teachers in Los Angeles and found a wide variation in teacher effectiveness; however, the study, and many others, observed that it was virtually impossible to take the research to an individual teacher level - there are just too many confounding variables. Nevertheless the Times released the [meaningless on an individual level] teacher data database on its website, creating confusion among its readers and anger among the named teachers. The AFT's Shankerblog attempts to clean up the mess in a post titlted  Value-Added: Theory Versus Practice:

This overall variation is a very important finding, but for policy purposes, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we can differentiate between the good, the bad, and the average at the level of individual teachers. How we should do so is an open question. Conflating the importance of teacher quality with the ability to measure it carries the risk of underemphasizing all the methodological and implementation details – such as random error, model selection, and data verification – that will determine whether value-added plays a productive role in education policy. These details are critical, and way too many states and districts, like the Los Angeles Times, actually seem to be missing the trees for the forest.

2) Dubious Standards for Charter Schools. A new report on six charter schools done by the New York City's Department of Education (DOE) shows, according to one writer, “most of the schools are neglecting basic elements of decent education, yet in no case were they punished for this, or pressured to change their ways,” and that “critical thinking was missing from several schools.” At one Bronx school, characterized by the report as “academically successful”

“Teachers' questions asked mainly for recall of information...Students' responses were generally one or two words...Students did not discuss or share ideas...There was no evidence of analysis, evaluation, or providing students with the opportunity to create a new product or defend a point of view.”

The report concluded that “Some of the key skills necessary for college success were not observed in classrooms.” Students at one charter high school studied reported that students were never required to read novels or book-length non-fiction. The longest reports they had written were three to four pages. Though parents complained about verbally abusive discipline and high rates of detention at one of the charter schools, nothing was done about it.

3) Education deform caused racial disparity, "two tier" system, and segregation in Chicago. A University of Illinois Chicago study on the school changes enacted by current Education Secretary Arne Duncan and Democratic mayor Daley found that Black and Latino students have “disproportionately experienced a string of punitive and destabilizing policies” including “'drilling'’’ for standardized tests, being forced to repeat a grade, school closures and high teacher turnover,” and that the "successful" schools cited by the deformers and traditional media are " three times whiter and three times less poor than the system as a whole and only serve a small slice of kids."

The “klobuchar” as a new unit of measure

Sen. Amy Klobuchar says, “Let the nuclear chain reactions begin!” She thinks that Minnesota should lift the moratorium on building new nuclear reactors for electricity generation.

Why, it’s perfectly safe. Even though we have no place to permanently store spent nuclear fuel – and you have to store it a long time – the current system of above-ground on-site storage is just fine. Well, at least according to Steven Chu, the Secretary of Energy, who was touring a 3M plant recently, with Sen. Klobuchar in tow:

Minnesota's two nuclear power plants, operated by Xcel Energy in Monticello and near Red Wing, store their waste outdoors in a system of protective steel containers called "dry cask storage."

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has declared that outdoor dry cask storage is not hazardous and should be safe [should be safe?; imagine my relief] for the next halfcentury [sic], Chu said.

"The nuclear waste problem is a solvable problem," he said. "We've got time to decide how to go forward."

Amazingly, some of the same people who don’t trust the federal gubmint on just about anything seem eager to accept Chu’s word on this one.

Think about how old your kids, or your grandkids, will be in half a century. Then, think of a dry cask of spent nuclear fuel held to their temples and imagine what names they might call you.

Since we’re likely to be talking about storage of a lot more spent nuclear fuel, we’ll need a handy way to refer to quantities. Each dry cask holds 40 spent fuel rods. Henceforth in discussion, 40 rods – one dry cask – shall be known as one “klobuchar.”

The punctured klobuchar at right is by Avidor.

N.B. Please read the comments for a discussion about nuclear power company liability and financial responsibility in the case of a leak or meltdown.

It's not just Wisconsin

A committee of the Tennessee State Senate has voted to abolish collective bargaining with school teachers:

NASHVILLE — The Senate Education Committee voted along party lines Wednesday to abolish collective bargaining between teachers unions and school boards across the state.

The vote was 6-3, with all Republicans on the panel voting for the bill and all Democrats against.

 As the Perdido Street School blog says:

"And the assault on teachers - championed by Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, Barack Obama and the "education reform movement" that has demonized teachers and teachers unions these past few years - proceeds toward its end game..."

This debacle is firmly on President Obama and the Democrats' hands:

Make no mistake - this is the corporate friendly Republican Party pushing these union abolishment policies and laws across the country, but it has been "liberals" like Barack Obama, Arne Duncan, George Miller, et al. who have laid the ground work for this assault by their relentless demonization of teachers and teachers unions.

The ground is now fertile for public education to be privatized and teachers unions to be destroyed.

The union leadership - either clueless or in cahoots with the deformers - is powerless to stop this stuff now.

They have allowed the public education issue to be framed by the deformers and the corporatists as: "Public aschools are failures and it is the because of the unions."

And you thought that Luca Brasi slept with the fishes

No, he just got a new name and a new job. Now he calls himself “Mike Hickey” and he’s the state director for the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses). Mike McIntee of The Uptake asked Hickey what he thought of Governor Dayton’s proposal to raise the marginal rate on top earners to increase tax fairness.

“Tax fairness really doesn’t matter,” replied Hickey.

You can watch it here:

Tax fairness really doesn’t matter

Seriously, you have to wonder where this guy worked as an enforcer before he got his NFIB gig. Hickey is doubtlessly an avatar for NFIB’s members and the qualities they embody.

“Entrepreneurs just look at the rate,” according to the Avatar. You can imagine, I’m sure, the Avatar criss-crossing the country with his carpet bag in hand and asking at every places he stops:

Whatcher rate?

And then, having found a suitable pesthole, he sets down roots! Transportation infrastructure, a market for his product or services, access to raw materials and professional services for his business, and a quality educated workforce, why, these things are meaningless! If this is what the Avatar truly believes, he is too dim to produce many employment opportunities, anyway.

The Avatar is looking for the same things that have made the entrepreneurial class in Somalia – the pirates – so successful.

But the Avatar is not alone in arguing that fairness is not a legitimate objective; here’s the opening graf from a recent editorial in the Strib, a piece that has Doug Tice’s fingerprints all over it:

If Minnesota were [I think I would have written was, Doug] an economic island, the call for tax fairness across income lines that Gov. Mark Dayton made with his budget-balancing proposal Tuesday would have considerable appeal in this traditionally egalitarian state.

We’ll lay aside for today the notion that the top marginal tax rate, standing in splendid isolation, is the sole marker of a state’s ability to attract new business.

We simply cannot afford to be fair, say Doug and the Avatar.

But when society discards fairness as an objective, it is no longer a civilization. Oh, I take that back. It’s a civilization; it’s just called feudalism. That’s what Doug and the Avatar want: the implementation of neo-feudalism, a Social Darwinist paradise.

But in a Social Darwinist paradise where might makes right, why should anybody care to protect Doug or the Avatar from the mob? That’s a serious question. One that’s being asked all over the Middle East today. Different in degree to the debate here, obviously, but it’s the same kind of question: how far will we let one group go in taking all the goodies before everyone else rises up and takes to the streets?

The new Republican governor in Wisconsin is finding his own personalized answer to that question this week.

More like this, please

Mark Dayton stands up for students, teachers and schools: 

Dayton criticizes new teacher licensing bill
February 17, 2011

St. Paul, Minn. (AP) — Gov. Mark Dayton is criticizing a plan for an alternative way to license new teachers that is now moving through the Legislature....Dayton says the bill doesn't do enough to guarantee that teachers licensed under the proposal would have enough grounding in the subjects they will teach.

He says it is also essential that nonprofit groups that would be allowed to train new teachers partner with existing colleges of education. The bill currently has no such requirement.

And my new favorite David Schultz sums up 30 years of Republican politics:

The basic GOP message on the economy, taxes, and the budget has been smoke and mirrors for 30 years. It has been about cost shifting, fund raiding, program bleeding, living on past spending approaches. It has been about blaming government waste, immigrants, and lazy welfare cheats as the cause of the financial problems we face. It has been about ignoring how the demand for tax cuts to benefit the wealthy have forced a hemorrhaging of the deficit at the national level. It has been about Pawlenty pushing through a law counting inflation for revenue purposes but not for the purposes of state expenditures.

It has been about simply being dishonest about the reality of the budget crisis we are facing. It is about constantly postponing to the future the problems with the present budget and spending scenario. It is about them saying that we do not have a revenue problem but a spending problem. It is about them clinging to a faulty supply theory of economics that is no more than a gloss for tax the poor and give the rich a free lunch.

What this blog needs is some Wisconsin content

To quote Congressman Paul Ryan, "It's like Cairo has moved to Madison."

Photo courtesy of Brent Gohde

Cowboy Hat Night at Drinking Liberally

To observe the Republican’s empty, unserious “all hat no cattle” response to Governor Dayton’s budget, tonight (February 17th) will be Cowboy Hat Night at Drinking Liberally. The first three DLers in the door wearing a cowboy hat (and whether it qualifies as a cowboy hat is entirely within the judgment of the DL management) will earn a beer. If you’re a winner, and you can sing a Marty Robbins song beginning to end, you earn two beers.

To any question that might be asked, a Republican has but one answer: “Cut.” Should we fix potholes? Cut. Should we let people die on the street for want of health care? Cut. It’s a beautiful afternoon, isn’t it? Cut.

We’ll be at the 331 Club from six to nine. See ya there, pardner.