Well, I'll probably sign off soon, but here's where we stand.
Looks like both House and Senate will be under GOP control.
Looks pretty good for Dayton at this point, but expect things to tighten further. I'd bet a final lead of around 5,000 votes, enough to trigger an auto recount. But then again, that's not in Franken-Coleman recount territory.
Leave it to the ticket-splitting, divided-government loving Minnesota electorate to leave government divided and reverse the polarity.
Oberstar will probably see his multi-decade Congressional career end.
Looks like Doll lost by several hundred votes (approx 700) if you combine totals on the Hennepin County and Dakota County websites. DFL would need to sweep the rest of the 7 to eke out 34-33 lead.
MN-Senate Right Now
DFL (27) - 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 20, 23, 27, 39, 43, 44, 45, 46, 50, 54, 55, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67
R (32) - 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24, 26, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 41, 42, 47, 48, 49, 51, 52, 53, 56
DFL needs 7 of these: Up in the air (8) - 2, 4, 9, 15, 25, 31, 38, 40, 57.
2 - Skoe (D) leads 54-45
4 - Carlson (R) leads 52-48
9 - Langseth (D) leads 53-47
15 - Pederson (R) leads 52-48
25 - Dahle (D) leads 47-42
31 - Ropes (D) leads 52-47
38 - Daley (R) leads 53-47 (only 3 precincts reporting)
40 - Hall (R) leads by 400-500 votes with 3 precincts out on SOS
57 - Sieben (D) leads by 800-900 votes with 6 precincts out on SOS
The updated numbers are now up on the SOS site, the fixed totals are now 44.9 to 41.7.
Random observations about MN-Gov race. Hennepin returns are just noise, to be used by Sutton to make it seem like something nefarious is going on (eventually.) Olmsted County is bad for Emmer, only wins by 8 points, Horner is strong (15%) compared to rest of state. Pawlenty won by 16 points and had a majority in Olmsted in 2006.
DFL will lose control of the MN-Senate, unless everything possible breaks for the DFL. Right now it looks like 32 DFL 35 GOP.
Strong DFL: 24 (1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 20, 27, 44, 45, 46, 54, 55, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67)
Where I was wrong: 9 (Langseth trails Backer), 57 (Sieben leads, but is close), so count 22-24Lean DFL: 6 (2, 8, 23, 39, 50, 51)
Up in the air 2 (Skoe trails early), 8 (too early, but Lourey leads),
DFL wins - 23 (Sheran), 39 (Metzen), 50 (Goodwin)
GOP likely win - 51 (Wolf over Betzold)
Tossup: 10 (10, 15, 30, 31, 38, 40, 43, 47, 53, 56)
10 -Hoffman (R) beating Skogen (D)
15 - Peterson (R) leads Hentges (D)
30 - Nelson (R) leads Lynch (D)
31 - Ropes (D) leads Miller (R)
38 - Daley (R) leads Carlson (R) early and close
40 - Hall (R) leads Doll (D) 3 precincts left within a couple hundred
43 - Bonoff (D) beats Dillon (R)
47 -Kruse (R) beat Foley (D)
53 - Chamberlain (R) beats Rummel (D)
56 - Lillie (R) beating Saltzman (D) by 1600
Lean R, held by DFL now (4, 16, 17, 22, 25, 28)
4 - Carlson (R) leads Olson (D) early10:18 PM
16 - Brown (R) leads Fobbe (D) early
17 - Nienow (R) leads Olseen (D) early
22 - Magnus (R) leading Vickerman (D)
25 - Dahle (D) leading early over Diekruf (R)
28 - Howe (R) leading Fricke (D)
Duluth reports results on their website before it hits the SOS site. Duluth: 31/36 precincts in - Dayton +10k over Emmer, 61-26, Oberstar +7000, up 61-35 over Cravaack in Duluth. Melanie Ford losing 55-44
See for yourself.
Here's what the fooferall is about in Hennepin County:
2010 Hennepin County Results
2006 Hennepin County Results
Duluth City website just started to report precincts, about 1/3 of Duluth is in. Dayton leads 65-25, is +4000 votes so far in Duluth. Oberstar leads 63-34 is +3000.
Hooray sanity! Tom Tancredo would be a disaster for Colorado!
A portent, perhaps?
Congrats to Mark Ritchie and his campaign staff (on whom are a few friends) for running a fantastic campaign! Here's to another four years of ethical, competent, participatory leadership in the SOS office!
On my home turf, Barb Goodwin's (SD50) out to 30 point lead, and Carolyn Laine is out to a similar lead in 50A. Go Barb and Carolyn!
1% separate Doll and Hall in SD40. This will be a nail biter.
Kathy Sheran (DFL - 23) is romping over her opponent. Excellent.
Apparently the strategy of forgoing public financing so he could take on the Swanson machine didn't end too well for Chris Barden.
Looks like Kurt Zellers (R-Maple Grove) is holding a double digit lead over Katie Rodriguez in 32B.
John Doll is leading by 136 over Dan Hall, who is a preacher (but not a Catholic).
I'm officially calling CD4 for Betty McCollum (I always wanted to say that.)
@dbrauer reports results from Duluth P-5,
In 2006, Duluth P-5 went 800-371 for Oberstar over Grams, and 639-501 for Hatch over Pawlenty. Turnout down a bit, bigger margin for Dayton.
8:09 PM Nate Silver's running projections:
CNN has some interesting exit poll data.
The good news for Democrats so far: Things aren’t quite as awful as they could be, according to early exit polls. The bad news: That’s still pretty bad.8:00 PM
The short version: it’s all about who’s showing up today…and who isn’t. Two-thirds of Hispanic voters, 6 in 10 young voters and the overwhelming share of black voters are backing Democrats. There just aren’t as many of them as there were last cycle: The percentage of youth voters dropped by half in early exit polls, from 18 to 9. The black vote has edged down to 10 percent.
Independents make up about a third of the electorate today – and they’re breaking big for Republicans. Democrats are barely holding on to their advantage among women – but men have turned Republican by a double-digit margin.
And the polls are closing in Minnesota. Now the GOTV ends and the counting begins!
Still waiting for the Minnesota polls to close. A few national storylines. Manchin's hold of WV-Sen is a big win for the D's. At this point, holding one of several threatened seats (Murray, Reid, especially) will nearly assure that the D's hold the Senate. And we won't have to wait for the handwriting analysts in Alaska to make the final call. Joe Biden might have to make a few more trips back to the Senate over the next couple of years, but he's familiar with the building.